Optimal flood management options with probabilistic optimization: a case study



In this paper a probabilistic optimization model for determining flood management options is presented. The proposed model minimizes flood damages and costs based on optimal flood management options such as structural, non-structural, emergency and permanent actions in a probabilistic framework to consider risk in decision making. In the optimization model different discharge-elevation-damage-probability curves are used as the inputs which are developed based on routing floods with different return periods. The proposed methodology is applied to the Sefidrud river in the northern part ofIran. In this study, the HEC-RAS model is used for hydraulic routing of floods with different return periods along the river considering different types of flood management options. The estimated flood damage is the basis for comparing different options and determining appropriate actions. The results demonstrate the integration of various options in flood damage reduction and show the high potential of this approach in floodplain planning and management. The results also show the significant value of using the probabilistic approach in flood management and its applications in decision making.